Every quarter, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) tells investors what to expect for the next three months. This page holds management to it. It starts with Q3 2025, the first quarter planned and guided entirely under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, and is updated after every earnings call.
The scorecard
- Revenue: above the guidance midpoint in 5 of 5 quarters
- Gross margin: above guidance in 5 of 5
- EPS: above guidance in 5 of 5
- Next test: Q4 2026 results, expected around Thursday, January 28, 2027 (date not yet confirmed by Intel)
Intel (INTC) guidance vs. results, quarter by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue guide midpoint (range) | Revenue actual | vs. midpoint | Gross margin guide → actual | EPS guide → actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $13.1B ($12.6–13.6B) | $13.7B | +$0.6B | ~36% → 40.0% | $0.01 → $0.23 |
| Q4 2025 | $13.3B ($12.8–13.8B) | $13.7B | +$0.4B | ~36.5% → 37.9% | $0.08 → $0.15 |
| Q1 2026 | $12.2B ($11.7–12.7B) | $13.6B | +$1.4B | 34.5% → 41.0% | $0.00 → $0.29 |
| Q2 2026 | $14.3B ($13.8–14.8B) | $16.1B | +$1.8B | 39% → 41.8% | $0.20 → $0.42 |
| Q3 2026 | $16.3B ($15.8–16.8B) | $16.5B | +$0.2B | 42% → 44.1% | $0.38 → $0.52 |
| Q4 2026 | $15.5B ($15–16B) | Expected ~Jan 28, 2027 | — | 38% → ? | $0.25 → ? |
What the record shows
- A clean sweep. In five straight quarters, Intel beat its own guidance on revenue, gross margin and earnings per share.
- Margins did the heavy lifting. Gross margin beat guidance by roughly 140 to 650 basis points, and EPS came in well ahead every time, from $0.07 to $0.29 above the guide.
- The revenue beat narrowed in Q3 2026. Revenue landed only $0.2B above the midpoint, against $1.4B and $1.8B in the two quarters before. Together with a softer Q4 guide, partly due to the Fab 28 accident in Israel, that set up the sharp share-price reaction on October 30.
- Q4 2026 sets a lower bar. Intel guided revenue down and gross margin to 38%, including about 200 basis points from Fab 28. Beating it would make six in a row.
Sources: Intel quarterly earnings releases and earnings calls, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026. Updated after each Intel earnings report.
